Deloitte’s quarterly survey reveals that UK finance professionals may be feeling more upbeat about prospects, but that this is yet to translate into a willingness to take greater risk onto balance sheets.
Francesco Podesta’, Head of the advisory team at Audere Solutions had the pleasure of sharing his thoughts with Euromoney.
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Each industry is facing different hurdles, some of which started with Covid in 2020. In any case the could be positive events that would enable more investing from companies going forward:
Stable debt capital markets: even though Covid’s impact had largely faded by 2022, a large cohort of mid and large companies postponed their refinancing activities during 2022 and 2023 to avoid an increased Margin while facing higher floating interest rates. We understand from our network that financing conditions are improving in several directions and stable debt capital markets will allow refinancing at reasonable terms and unlocking business initiatives.
Stable or lower interest rates: it was wishful thinking to expect interest rates to drop in H1 2024, but economic data are now trending in a direction that could allow the BoE to cut rates sometime in H2 2024. In any case, if inflation will continue its move towards 2%, CFO’s will be relieved from a big burden.
Clear credible fiscal policies: In an election year, political parties trade on proposed policies for the years to come. A stable government with clear policies will reduce the margin for error in taking new investment initiatives. Sadly, elections are expected late in the year, so the relief won’t come very soon.
Better economic outlook: Certain sectors have been punished more than others, but all of them are affected by stagnant economies in the UK and Europe. Avoiding recession was the main concern for 2023 and growth below expectation seems to be the main concern for 2024. Investing cannot be done on hope, and for some companies, economic recovery will have to begin as a prevailing macro trend for companies to trigger long-term initiatives.
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