• Audere Research

Weekly FX Outlook December 7th



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GB Pound

Sterling had a very volatile week.


Movements

GBPUSD started the week at 1.3338 and moved higher breaking the key resistance at 1.35, recording a two and a half year high before a violent correction in the early hours of Monday (today) to close at 1.3282 (-0.42%).


GBPEUR opened at 1.1138 and moved gradually lower to close the week with a heavy loss of 1.44 % at 1.0978.


Movement rationale

Sterling was very nervous last week, supported by ongoing optimism over COVID-19 vaccines and hopes of a Brexit deal. Nevertheless, negotiation between UK and EU did not produce a breakthrough over the weekend and Prime Minister Boris Johnson was reported “to be ready to quit talks within hours”, spurring a Pound depreciation of more than 1 per cent at the start of the London trading session this morning. Apparently, the biggest source of disagreement seems to be the rules governing future competition between the EU and UK, with the issue of EU fishing rights in UK waters is also yet to be solved.


Week ahead

Volatility in the UK currency is likely to be elevated this week and GBP highly sensitive to any further Brexit development.


Calendar

Thursday 8am | Manufacturing Production (Oct), Industrial Production (Oct)


US Dollar

The US Dollar continued the downtrend movement.


Movements

EURUSD opened at 1.1972 and continued to appreciate further, breaking the 1.20 level, hitting a new record high since May 2018 (1.2175) before closing at 1.2099, recording a solid gain of 1.06%.


GBPUSD started the week at 1.3338 and moved higher breaking the key resistance at 1.35, recording a two and a half year high before a violent correction in the early hours of Monday to close at 1.3282 (-0.42%).


Movement rationale

The USD broad-based downtrend continued last week, breaking a new 2-year low versus major rival currencies. Promising vaccine developments have been buoying investor sentiment, hitting safe-haven currencies such as the US Dollar. Disappointing readings from the Job report (US economy adding only 245K jobs in November, less than expected) and poor Manufacturing PMI raised signs of a slowing US recovery, putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to provide additional monetary easing at its last meeting this year.


Week ahead

USD is expected to have a relatively volatile week ahead, with the following main events having the potential to influence financial markets:


Calendar

Thursday 2:30pm | Consumer Price Index (Nov), Initial Jobless Claims (Dec 4)

Friday 4pm | Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Dec)


Euro

The Euro had a strong week.


Movements

EURUSD opened at 1.1972 and continued to appreciate further, breaking the 1.20 level, hitting a new record high since May 2018 (1.2175) before closing at 1.2099, recording a solid gain of 1.06%.


GBPEUR opened at 1.1138 and moved gradually lower to close with a heavy weekly loss of 1.44 % at 1.0978.


Movement rationale

The Euro was in demand last week, supported by some positive data (Manufacturing PMI revised higher in November and unemployment in the Eurozone falling slightly in October) and an overall buoyant market environment. The Euro pushed above 1.20 versus the Dollar to the highest level in two a half year. Negative readings from Eurozone inflation, dropping 0.3% YoY in November and missing estimates, did little to alter Euro favourable environment. In addition, some positive news came out from the Eurogroup meeting last Monday, with Eurozone finance ministers finally striking a deal over the bailout fund.


Week ahead

The Eurozone economic data calendar includes the following:


Calendar

Monday 8am | German Industrial Production (Oct)

Tuesday 11am | Gross Domestic Product (Q3), ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Dec)

Thursday 1:45pm | ECB Interest Rate Decision


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