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Weekly FX Outlook November 23rd



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GB Pound

Movements

GBPUSD started the week at 1.3212 and trended with a generally steady upside to break 1.33 level (new 2-month high), closing +0.91% at 1.3332.


GBPEUR opened at 1.1139 and gradually moved higher to close with a positive weekly gain of 0.76% at 1.1224.


Movement rationale

After a quiet start of the week with modest movements versus major currencies, Sterling edged higher amid expectations that that the EU and UK were nearing a Brexit deal, despite Thursday's lapsed deadline. News that talks would switch to a virtual format, after a member of the EU negotiating team tested positive for COVID-19, only temporary altered the currency’s appreciation. Sterling’s resilience was also supported by solid UK data, with retail sales jumping 5.8% year-on-year.



Week ahead

Brexit remains the core focus for GBP investors, with the following other events having the potential to influence the markets:


Calendar

Monday 10:30am | Markit Services PMI (Nov)


US Dollar

The US Dollar had a quiet week.


Movements

EURUSD traded sideways, opening at 1.1860 and moving in a tight range to close with little change at 1.1878 (+0.15%).


GBPUSD started the week at 1.3212 and trended with a generally steady upside to break 1.33 level (new 2-month high), closing +0.91% at 1.3332.


Movement rationale

After a few volatile weeks, the Dollar showed some signs of consolidation last week, with limited movements versus most its major rivals. However, the US currency remains under pressure. Disappointing economic data (retails sales missed October expectations) and continued Covid pressures from new curfew measures means there is limited support for the Greenback.



Week ahead

USD is expected to have a relatively calm week ahead, with the following main events having the potential to influence financial markets:


Calendar

Monday 3:45pm | Markit Services PMI (Nov)

Tuesday 4 pm | Consumer Confidence (Nov)

Wednesday 2:30pm | Durable Goods Orders (Oct), Gross Domestic Product (Q3), Initial Jobless Claims (Nov 20), Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index (Nov), 8pm | FOMC Minutes


Euro

The Euro had a relatively calm week.


Movements

EURUSD traded sideways, opening at 1.1860 and moved in a tight range before closing with little change at 1.1878 (+0.15%).


GBPEUR opened at 1.1139 and gradually moved higher to close with a positive weekly gain of 0.76% at 1.1224.


Movement rationale

The Euro was largely unchanged last week despite some impasse in the “Covid stimulus” and negative economic data. The lack of progress in bridging divisions over the next $3 trillion stimulus package (post Hungary / Poland veto), caused delay concerns that weighed on the Single currency. In addition, Eurozone’s struggle to contain the pandemic and a disappointing consumer confidence data realised last Friday will likely add further downside risk over the coming months. Under this shadow, the latest comments from ECB President Christine Lagarde did little in the way of offering support for the currency.



Week ahead

The Eurozone economic data calendar includes the following:


Calendar

Monday 10am | Markit PMI Composite (Nov)

Tuesday 10am | IFO – Business Climate (Nov)

Friday 11am | Consumer Confidence (Nov)


Call +44 (0) 203 884 992 to discuss further with an advisor.

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