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Foreign Exchange Analysis ~ 04 September 2023


GB Pound

What happened last week?

An upgrade to the UK’s recent growth numbers allowed the pound to outperform the euro.


What to watch for in the short-term?

The ONS’s decision to upgrade growth in the UK by a combined 1.7% through 2021 allows for a certain amount of optimism within UK economic circles but actually does little to change the outlook for sterling and interest rates.


This growth has been and gone and given the transmission lag between changes in the base rate and their effect on the wider economy, prospects for the Bank of England remain elevated. A hike of 25bps towards the end of the month will only not come to pass from a large fall in inflation and growth expectations.


What about the coming months? We’re starting to see more and more people try and forecast the end of the Bank’s hiking cycle with a fair few pulling that end forward to this month. Such a shift would stop the pound in its tracks.


Calendar

Thursday 09.30 BST | BOE Hearings in Parliament


US Dollar

What happened last week? Despite a slightly weaker jobs report than expected, the dollar has remained resolutely strong. What to watch for in the short-term? The discussion in the US has shifted now from lower inflation levels to growth and consumption, typified by a strong consumer and higher participation in the labour market. This is unlikely to mean lower rates anytime soon in the US and instead, a stronger USD as other nations feel the need to peel rates away from their recent highs. If confidence numbers released this Wednesday emerge strongly then another leg higher for the greenback will likely come to bear. What about the coming months? Unemployment in the US rose finally last month but whether this is as a result of people losing their jobs or more people entering the labour market – a net positive – will decide whether the USD can continue its bull run. Calendar Wednesday 15.00 | US ISM Report


Euro

What happened last week?

Poor growth prospects and two-way risk on ECB rates have hamstrung the single currency.


What to watch for in the short-term?

With the upgrade to the UK’s growth numbers, it is now Germany that is the worst performing major economy post-Covid and alongside the ECB’s rate rises, the mood in Europe is starting to darken.


Opposition to further tightness in monetary policy could see government spending cut, further depressing growth and leading to the recession that has seemingly been just over the hill for a number of months now. Throw in the situation in Ukraine and the winter in Europe isn’t looking as benign as it once did.


What about the coming months? EURUSD looks less and less likely to rebound above 1.10 level so prices seen above that number may be few and far between.


Calendar

Wednesday 10.00 BST | European Retail Sales



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