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  • Audere Research

Foreign Exchange Analysis ~ 06 February 2023

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GB Pound

What happened last week?

The Bank of England raised interest rates by 50bps but guided the market to suggest that rate rises in the future will be smaller and less frequent, sending sterling lower.

What to watch for in the short-term?

With the voting record of the Monetary Policy Committee showing a split between 7 members voting for a 50bps increase and 2 who wanted no change, the next leg for sterling will depend on speeches from BOE members and the evolution of inflationary pressures.

Similarly, this Friday’s GDP announcement should confirm that the UK narrowly avoided recession as last year came to a close.

There’s every chance that sterling tests the 1.20 level in GBPUSD this week.

What about the coming months? The range of 1.20-1.25 in GBPUSD looks secure for now but further sterling gains will be contingent on how secure the UK consumer feels.


Thursday 07:00 GMT | UK GDP

US Dollar

What happened last week?

The Fed meeting allowed for both sides of the rates argument to continue to see themselves as correct on the future path of interest rates. It was Friday’s stellar jobs number that instead drove USD gains.

What to watch for in the short-term?

Those in the economic profession were left grasping for an explanation for a jobs report that was nearly 3x stronger than expectation.

Higher jobs and lower wage growth is an interesting dynamic and suggests US businesses are able to hire without having to pay more in salary. The goldilocks argument is that this could lead to higher consumer spending without scaring the inflation horses.

For now, we would like to see consumer and business confidence measures increase to galvanise further support for the USD.

What about the coming months? The curve for the Fed Funds rate still suggests market participants are looking for cuts by the end of the year; we see this as overly optimistic and will be looking for the Fed to further push back on such beliefs.


Friday 15.00 GMT | Michigan Consumer Sentiment


What happened last week?

EURUSD disappointed on the week, heading lower despite the ECB announcing a 50bps rate hike. The markets took on the European Central Bank lack of guidance and reacted to an extremely strong US jobs number.

What to watch for in the short-term?

We need a new story in the Eurozone for additional EUR strength. China’s reopening is now an old story as is the rebound from last year’s overly strong USD; Euro bulls need something new to hang their optimism on.

To us, the most likely remains a diverging growth story although as long as the US economy remains able to pump out jobs numbers as it did last week it’s going to be a while for investors to bet on Europe over the US.

What about the coming months? EURUSD comprehensively bounced off the 1.10 level last week and that will be treated as a line in the sand for now.


Thursday 13.00 GMT | German Inflation

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