• Audere Research

Foreign Exchange Analysis ~ 26 September 2022

Read via Portal


GB Pound

Sterling suffered losses against most majors and dropped to an all-time low against the Dollar.


Movements

GBPUSD started the week at 1.1446 shedding 1.4% in the first half of last week. After trading rangebound on Thursday, the pair resumed the downtrend losing 3.6% (the 3rd worst day since Black Wednesday). Losses exacerbated over the weekend to touch the lowest ever recorded (1.038). The pair then regained some ground to close the week at 1.0730, plunging 6.26%.


GBPEUR opened at 1.1408 oscillating around 1.14 for the first half of the week. On Friday the pair dropped 2.3% to a low of 1.1185. Losses were extended over the weekend to a Monday morning low of 1.082 (lowest level since September 2020) before closing the week at 1.1078 for a weekly loss of -2.9%.


Movement rationale

On Monday GBP price action was muted as the UK and commonwealth watched the funeral of her majesty in the most viewed TV event in history. However, the remainder of the week saw the Cable consecutively beat 37-year lows. On Tuesday, GBPUSD consolidated beneath 1.14 with Liz Truss’s plans of tax cuts and energy bailouts failing to support the pair. For GBPEUR, Monday and Tuesday’s trading was flat. On Wednesday the GBPUSD lost 1% on the back of a hawkish interest rate announcement in US, dropping beneath 1.13. Thursday’s BoE 50bp rate hike missed market expectations which priced in 75bp ahead of the meeting. On Friday, the chancellor announced the UK's biggest tax cuts in 50 years and went further to signal more tax cuts on Sunday. This caused GBPUSD to drop 3.6% on Friday, with the Sterling’s plunge continuing early Monday to hit an all-time low, over concerns that the new fiscal stimulus will stretch UK's finances to the limit.


Week ahead

Sterling remains under pressure and the GDP announcement on Friday could add further downside risk for the Pound.


Calendar

Friday 7am | GDP (Q2)


US Dollar

The Dollar continued to rally against the Pound and Euro on the back of a hawkish Fed announcement.


Movements

EURUSD opened the week at 1.0034 before falling below parity on Tuesday’s session. After a 1.3% loss on Wednesday the pair hovered around 0.98 on Thursday. Friday saw a further drop, which continued in the early hours on Monday, with the pair hitting its lowest level in over 20 years (0.9550) to closed with a weekly loss of -3.5% at 0.9684.


GBPUSD started the week at 1.1446 shedding 1.4% in the first half of last week. After trading rangebound on Thursday, the pair resumed the downtrend losing 3.6% (the 3rd worst day since Black Wednesday). Losses exacerbated over the weekend to touch the lowest ever recorded (1.038). The pair then regained some ground to close the week at 1.0730, plunging 6.26%.


Movement rationale

Last week started relatively quiet for the Greenback as markets sat on their hands ahead of the 11 central banks’ interest rate announcements. However, on Tuesday, the Dollar resumed its uptrend gaining half a percent on the GBP and EUR as investors looked ahead to the FOMC meeting. Markets even priced in a 1 in 5 chance of a 100bp hike in the build-up to the announcement. The 75bp hike accompanied by the higher for longer dot plot projections (rising to 4.4% by year-end) caused EURUSD to drop 1.3% to 0.981. For the latter half of the week, negative risk sentiment benefitted the dollar which made substantial gains on most majors. The USD appreciation continued over the weekend amid investors’ concern, with GBPUSD hitting an all-time low while EURUSD also touched a fresh 20-year-low on Monday morning.


Week ahead

Growth data on Thursday will be used as further insight into the recessionary outlook for H2.


Calendar

Tuesday 1.30pm | Durable goods (Aug)

Thursday 1.30pm | GDP (Q2)

Friday 3pm | Consumer sentiment


Euro

The Euro reached a fresh 20-year low against the Dollar while advancing further against the Pound.


Movements

EURUSD opened the week at 1.0034 before falling below parity on Tuesday’s session. After a 1.3% loss on Wednesday the pair hovered around 0.98 on Thursday. Friday saw a further drop, which continued in the early hours on Monday, with the pair hitting its lowest level in over 20 years (0.9550) to closed with a weekly loss of -3.5% at 0.9684.


GBPEUR opened at 1.1408 oscillating around 1.14 for the first half of the week. On Friday the pair dropped 2.3% to a low of 1.1185. Losses were extended over the weekend to a Monday morning low of 1.082 (lowest level since September 2020) before closing the week at 1.1078 for a weekly loss of -2.9%.


Movement rationale

Last week in Europe started with ECB Vice-President’s speech stating “the economy is likely to stagnate around year-end” along with continued inflationary pressure. For GBPEUR the first few days saw the pair oscillating around 1.137-1.148, before a GBP free-fall toward the end of the week sent the pair to a 2-year low. After a quiet start to the week, EURUSD resumed the downtrend as the hawkish Fed stance continued to benefit the US currency. The pair shed 0.5% on Tuesday and 1.3% on Wednesday. After a flat session on Thursday, Friday saw further EURUSD losses, which extended on Monday morning amid renewed USD strengthen and investors’ concerns over the rise of a far-right party in Italy's election, held last Sunday.


Week ahead

Inflation data on Friday is likely to set another record and will be closely monitored by investors as to gauge how aggressively the ECB will raise interest rates next month.


Calendar

Thursday 10am | Consumer confidence

Friday 10am | Preliminary HICP (Sep)



Call +44 (0) 203 884 992 to discuss further with an advisor.

Recent Posts

See All

Read via Portal GB Pound What happened last week? ↑ Sterling traded as high as 1.2153 as, finally, it fell out of the glare of the political limelight. This was a 16-week high although mainly a functi

Read via Portal GB Pound The pound has held onto relative strength despite hotter-than-expected UK inflation data brings fears of a long-lasting recession. Movements GBPUSD started the week at 1.1811

Read via Portal GB Pound Despite weak growth data, Sterling rallied against the Dollar. For GBPEUR, the week was more mixed. Movements GBPUSD started the week at 1.1397 before regaining 1.15 on Monday