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Foreign Exchange Analysis ~ 30 January 2023


GB Pound

What happened last week?

Weakness in manufacturing sector confidence put the pound lower to start the week but sterling recovered as traders got ready for this week’s Bank of England meeting.


What to watch for in the short-term?

This week is all about central banks with the Bank of England not yet in a position to definitively call time on rate rises or inflation pressures.


While the Bank’s prediction of a 15 month recession in the UK may be now characterised as overly pessimistic, we see the prevailing market belief that the Bank will end the year by cutting rates to be overly optimistic. A hike of 50bps on Thursday looks almost certain and it will be how many dissent from this that will set the tone for ongoing sterling moves.


What about the coming months? GBPUSD is still targeting a break above the 1.25 level and will look to base around there through Q1.


Calendar

Thursday 12:00 GMT | BOE Rate Decision


US Dollar

What happened last week?

Dollar traded lower throughout the week with new multi-month lows seen against a number of G10 currencies.


What to watch for in the short-term?

It’s a huge week for the USD with a Fed meeting, central bank meetings in Europe and the Chinese reopening following the Lunar New Year holidays.


Those looking for dollar weakness need only hope for two words from Fed Chair Jerome Powell: “data dependent”. If the central bank positions further hikes as dependent on the data coming from the US economy then we can see ranges to the dollar downside being broken.


Those looking for dollar gains will need to hear the Fed pushing back on the cuts priced in for Q4, which feels more likely.


What about the coming months? As noted above, China’s reopening is seen as one of the dynamics for ongoing improvements in risk and sentiment and strong data will be needed to keep that dream alive for months to come.


Calendar

Wednesday 19.00 GMT | Federal Reserve Rate Decision

Friday 13.30 GMT | Non-Farm Payrolls


Euro

What happened last week? With both a Fed and ECB meeting there is little surprise that EURUSD sat in a range of less than a cent last week. What to watch for in the short-term? The ECB was widely castigated as being weak throughout the Global Financial Crisis but with Christine Lagarde at the helm the central bank is aiming to take on markets with a plan to keep rate rises front and centre in the Eurozone. In this instance, we expect that the ECB will push bank on the market pricing of rate cuts in 2024 allowing for further support for the euro. What about the coming months? All of this is predicated on whether Eurozone and US growth differentials widen in the coming months. Confirmation that Germany moved into recession in Q4 and Spanish inflation numbers have muddied the waters in recent days. Calendar Tuesday 13.00 GMT | German Inflation Thursday 13.15 GMT | ECB rate decision



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