• Audere Research

Weekly FX Outlook June 7th


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GB Pound

Sterling retraced from previous highs against the Dollar.


Movements

GBPUSD opened at 1.4238 and traded with a negative bias to end the week at 1.4118 (-0.84%).


GBPEUR opened at 1.1633 and traded in a tight range all week to close relatively unchanged (-0.08%) at 1.1624.


Movement rationale

Sterling reversed some of the recent gains against all major G10 peers at the start of the new month, amid concerns that rising cases in UK of the new strain of Covid-19 would delay the June 21 ending of all restrictions. Better-than-expected PMI data on Tuesday offered some temporary support to the currency before the market started to price in potential negative impact of the delay to the overall UK economy.


Week ahead

The week ahead has a light UK economic calendar:


Calendar

Friday 7am | Industrial Production (Apr), Gross Domestic Product (Apr)


US Dollar


Sterling retraced from previous highs against the Dollar.


Movements

GBPUSD opened at 1.4238 and traded with a negative bias to end the week at 1.4118 (-0.84%).


GBPEUR opened at 1.1633 and traded in a tight range all week to close relatively unchanged (-0.08%) at 1.1624.


Movement rationale

Sterling reversed some of the recent gains against all major G10 peers at the start of the new month, amid concerns that rising cases in UK of the new strain of Covid-19 would delay the June 21 ending of all restrictions. Better-than-expected PMI data on Tuesday offered some temporary support to the currency before the market started to price in potential negative impact of the delay to the overall UK economy.


Week ahead

The week ahead has a light UK economic calendar:


Calendar

Friday 7am | Industrial Production (Apr), Gross Domestic Product (Apr)


Euro


The Euro was soft.


Movements

EURUSD began the week at 1.2238 and moved downward to reach a low of 1.2102 on Friday. It then partly recovered to close at 1.2146 for a weekly loss of 0.76%.


GBPEUR opened at 1.1633 and traded in a tight range all week to close relatively unchanged (-0.08%) at 1.1624.


Movement rationale

The Euro came under pressure as disappointing economic data hit the Euro zone during the second part of the week. Whilst inflation figures came out at 2% on Tuesday, exceeding the ECB target for the first time since 2018 and offering some initial support to the single currency, lacklustre construction PMI data from the bloc started to limit the currency. Worse-than-expected April Retails Sales was then published for the Euro zone on Friday, which were down by 3.1% MoM, missing the market’s expectations and exacerbating the EUR weakness.


Week ahead

This week’s focus will be on the ECB meeting on Thursday, with the Eurozone economic data calendar includes the following:


Calendar

Monday 7am | German Factory Orders (Apr)

Tuesday 10am | Gross Domestic Product (Q1), ZEW Survey – Economic Sentiment (Jun)

Thursday 12:45am | ECB Deposit Rate Decision




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