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Weekly FX Outlook November 2nd



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GB Pound

Sterling had a volatile week.

Movements

GBPUSD started the week at 1.3027 and traded in a volatile negative bias to close with a weekly loss of 1.3% at 1.2858.

GBPEUR opened at 1.1029 and gradually appreciated up to 1.1130 before giving back most of the gains toward the end of the week to close little changed at 1.1054 (+0.23%).

Movement rationale

After an initial quiet start of the week, Sterling gently appreciated versus the Euro and other major currencies (excluding the Dollar) on news of progress in Brexit negotiations. The optimism in reaching an agreement supported the currency until news of a new UK lockdown negatively weighed on the currency toward the end of the week.

Week ahead

With limited major data releases this week, Sterling will remain driven by global risk sentiment, Brexit headlines and the US Election outcome.

Calendar

Monday 10:30am | Markit Manufacturing PMI (Oct)

Thursday 1pm | Interest Rate Decision


US Dollar

The US Dollar had a strong week.

Movements

EURUSD traded lower reversing the previous week’s gains, opening at 1.1809 and gradually moving lower to close the week down 1.5% at 1.1632.

GBPUSD started the week at 1.3027 and traded in a volatile negative bias to close with a weekly loss of 1.3% at 1.2858.

Movement rationale

A sharp rebound in the Dollar took place last week as safe-haven demand was triggered by news of increasing movement restrictions across Europe and surging Coronavirus infections. Risk-off sentiment (supporting USD) was also prompted by the confirmation that a pre-election US stimulus package was off the cards. On the economic side, US Economy bounced back significantly in the third quarter, recording a better than expected boom of 33% on annual basis, driven by consumption and investments.

Week ahead

USD is expected to have a volatile week ahead, with all eyes on US Election that will likely increase market volatility and impact on the Dollar:

Calendar

Monday 4pm | ISM Manufacturing PMI(Oct)

Tuesday - Wednesday | Presidential Election and Results

Thursday 8pm | Fed Interest Rate Decision

Friday 2:30pm | Nonfarm Payrolls (Oct), Unemployment Rate (Oct)


Euro

The Euro had a soft week.

Movements

EURUSD traded lower reversing the previous week’s gains, opening at 1.1809 and gradually moving lower to close the week down 1.5% at 1.1632.

GBPEUR opened at 1.1029 and gradually appreciated up to 1.1130 before giving back most of the gains toward the end of the week to close little changed at 1.1054 (+0.23%).

Movement rationale

Another wave of risk aversion spread across the market last week, pushing down risk-on currencies including the Euro. Fresh social restrictions and lockdowns imposed across Europe also triggered an equity market sell-off which further weighed on the single currency. Euro found some support on economic data which showed Eurozone output grew by 12.7% in the third quarter compared with the previous three months, beating market expectations. Also, the ECB met last Thursday, holding the rate steady but hinting at additional stimulus could be put in place as soon as December.

Week ahead

The Eurozone economic data calendar includes the following:

Calendar

Wednesday 10am | Markit PMI Composite (Oct)

Thursday 11am | Retail Sales (Sep)

Friday 11am | German Industrial Production (Sep)


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